Since January, the Trump administration has done everything within its power to exacerbate our climate crisis. The budget bill on the horizon will codify much of the DOGE and administrative gutting of climate programs we’ve seen over these last five months, but the budget is just one aspect of the environmental and climate retreat on the horizon. Already, Trump and his allies have unraveled environmental regulations at an unprecedented speed and scale, and they’re removing the safety nets communities rely on to cope with climate-fuelled disasters. We cannot regain what we lose from these actions, if they’re allowed to continue. They will affect Americans coping with floods, hurricanes, and wildfires, redefine public lands, alter the landscapes future generations inherit, and so much more. They have to be opposed now, before it’s too late.

Cut resources have already caused unnecessary suffering. The recent tornadoes that tore through Arkansas and Missouri, along with severe floods in West Virginia, demonstrate how these cuts are already having dire life and death impacts on communities. A diminished National Weather Service (NWS) meant less accurate forecasting, and less time to prepare and seek shelter in both cases. Meanwhile, cuts to the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) have left families grappling through post-disaster recovery with limited to nonexistent federal resources. Homes aren’t being rebuilt, and state governments are “still waiting” for the aid they’ve requested. Due to the increasing severity of these types of events, one in thirteen homes across the United States are now deemed uninsurable. 

Taken together, this means Americans are left with an ever-dwindling pool of resources when disaster strikes. As hurricane season starts, we can all anticipate the same or worse than last year’s damages, thanks to warming oceans fuelling climate-amped weather systems. These rollbacks will add insult to injury, with thousands of communities facing a reality where we know less about when and where hurricanes will strike, in tandem with diminished federal resources to help people recover when they do.

If knowledge is power, the Trump administration rollbacks have sought to disempower the research arms of the federal agencies we all rely on to understand how a changing climate  impacts our lives. Trump and his allies have laid waste to previously uncontroversial agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and FEMA, slashing budgets and laying off integral staff just in time for wildfire, tornado, and hurricane disaster seasons. NOAA and FEMA are the agencies that help all Americans cope with a changing climate reality. They help us all better prepare for storms and cope with the consequences of catastrophic events. Before the year is out, we will see the hurt this agenda will cause to folks across the country.

Since 2007, NOAA’s groundbreaking work has reduced damages by roughly $5 billion per hurricane, thanks to timely storm preparation. But the Trump administration aims to slash NOAA’s climate and atmospheric research funding by 75 percent. Even the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is having a huge reshuffling of staff and will have to weather up to a 24 percent budget cut. These cuts to NASA include climate research on our home planet and satellite programs that have taught us about the universe, like Voyager. These rollbacks will affect all Americans: from the accuracy of weather apps and local weather forecasts, to long-term climate projections, how we prepare for storms, and what we know about our own origins. 

As climate change warms our oceans and bakes our forests, life-threatening events will become increasingly common. The United States will need well-resourced federal environmental and emergency agencies. Instead, the Trump administration has frozen the financial lifelines FEMA was providing to disaster-stricken communities and announced that FEMA will be eliminated by December of this year. Since 2002, FEMA has provided a lifeline to 9.5 million people, despite rejecting 46 percent of aid applicants. It’s clear FEMA needs to do more, not less, to help those in need; freezing funding and eliminating assistance is not the way forward.

 

Last year, there was a major federal disaster declaration every four days in the United States, touching the lives of 41 percent of Americans. It’s no longer news: we’re living on an increasingly warmer and less predictable planet with extreme hurricanes, floods, wildfires, and other climate-amplified events. Americans need federal agencies that will help us all adapt to a changing climate reality. If the past is prelude, we can expect even more billion-dollar climate disasters than what we’ve seen. An America without a strong FEMA means states and households will have to go it alone when the next disaster hits—despite the reality that no U.S. state has the capacity or resources to replace the federal government’s role in disaster response or weather forecasting, and despite the reality that nearly 60 percent of American households cannot cover a $1,000 emergency. So just how will communities cope? In the end, President Trump’s policies will hurt those who supported him in the 2024 election the most. States like Texas, Louisiana, and Florida—all Republican-leaning—have filed the lion’s share of FEMA claims in recent years.

All of this is a symptom of a sick planet suffering from the highest post-Industrial Revolution carbon emissions ever achieved—primarily from fossil fuels. This has caused our first year with an average temperature rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius since human civilization began. Scientists estimate that based on current emissions, we have just two years left to both decarbonize and limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and only nine years to limit it to 1.7 degrees Celsius. Every fraction of a degree matters for all our futures. But even as our window for action is rapidly closing, we are churning out more emissions globally than ever before. Every year we continue to hit new records on CO2 levels, and may have even breached some climate tipping points that could make life hell for swathes of people globally. For 2025 and beyond, we should anticipate increasingly severe storms, wildfires, and other events, as what was historically precedented is no longer relatable for our climate futures. We need more resources for disaster management, weather forecasting, environmental responsibility, decarbonization, and climate action—not less. 

We have the foreboding task of facing an unpredictable climate future, but instead of arming ourselves with knowledge, the Republican agenda seeks to create a new Dark Ages for climate research. Perhaps because the less we know about our climate crisis, the more we can ignore how our actions today will shape all our futures tomorrow. And in turn, the less we will attribute extreme weather events as connected to our rising emissions. It’s the same anti-science logic Trump used in his first administration with COVID, back in 2020: if the numbers look bad, just stop testing and collecting data altogether. But an anti-science agenda will not not prepare us for the uncertainty ahead. Neither will an ostrich-in-the-sand approach to climate change.

It’s not just climate research and FEMA. The Trump administration has sought to re-make the environmental landscape of the United States. While not perfect, former President Biden’s landmark Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) gave the United States a path towards a renewable energy future, even with the kickbacks to fossil fuel interests. Predictably, President Trump has sought to erase Biden’s IRA agenda through rollbacks and cuts to clean energy tax credits in the budget bill. Nearly anything to do with environmental stewardship has been targeted. 

The Trump administration has even wound back provisions of the 1918 Migratory Bird Act. These changes will lessen the corporate responsibilities for all migratory birds killed accidentally by corporate activities. So if the killings are deemed ‘accidental,’ U.S. Fish and Wildlife will not be enforcing protections for migratory birds killed by fossil fuel companies. If a policy over a century old is in the cross-hairs, you know these are indeed not normal times.

The capacity of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to monitor clean water, air, and soil is also in question now, as scientific expertise and their mission to protect the environment continues to be undermined. Mass firings and administrative policy rollbacks for power plants and “forever chemicals” will make our air, water, and soil less safe; that means more Cancer Alleys, more brownfields, and more dire health consequences for people across the country. The tools we had to help bridge environmental injustices are being eliminated. The EPA closed their environmental justice offices in conjunction with an Executive Order that eliminated the Biden-era cross-agency Justice 40 Initiative. Justice 40 sought to provide resources for climate and energy security to disadvantaged communities across the United States; clearly the Trump government believes that’s something we as a country can do without, even with rising inequality and an increasingly unpredictable climate reality.

Initiatives that save people money, like Energy Star appliances, car tailpipe emissions, and electric vehicle manufacturing goals have been on the chopping block. Infrastructure for electric car charging stations, reductions on methane emissions from oil and gas wells, limits on “forever chemicals” like PFAS/PFOA in our drinking water—these and more are being rolled back and removed. The Department of Energy has proudly rolled back nearly 50 regulations and policies that sought to reduce energy costs and move our energy systems into the 21st and 22nd centuries. Say goodbye to policies that support solar and wind energy, initiatives that protect consumers and save water, along with environmental reviews of wetlands and floodplains. Meanwhile, the EPA has made it easier for polluting industries to tarnish the air we all breathe, the water we drink, and the soil we get our food from. These rollbacks open the door to less accountability for companies when there’s an oil spill, or toxic runoff from manufacturing and the like. A scorched-earth reality is coming to fruition. Instead of serving the environment and the health and welfare of the American people, the EPA at present seeks to serve corporate interests—fossil fuel companies in particular. There’s even a specific email address just for oil and gas companies to request exclusions to federal environmental policies. 

The vast environmental re-making is also coming for our national treasures: our public lands. National parks have faced steep staffing cuts, and park museums, trails, and visitor centers are being closed. Rollbacks at the Department of the Interior (DOI) are not exclusive to national parks and monuments, but have also included more favorable terms to entice oil and gas leases on public lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). From Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve to Devil’s Tower National Monument—America’s first national monument, and a sacred site for Native Americans—no public lands are too precious to be excluded from corporate interests. 

With his executive orders, Trump announced sweeping plans to open vast swathes of public land to both logging and coal mining. A new Justice Department interpretation of the Antiquities Act, the legislation that allows for the protection of lands for conservation and recreation, will put these agendas on a faster track. The Trump administration will now be empowered to revoke national monuments from their protected status, creating an open season for oil and gas leases and for logging. These actions will devastate conservation efforts, watersheds, ecosystems, cultural heritage, increase the severity of wildfires, and forever alter the state of national parks and public lands as we know it—to say nothing of the impact this would have for increasing emissions, and in turn exacerbating our climate crisis. A slash and burn approach to the environment will ensure a more unpredictable climate reality for all of us.

These actions and policies fulfill promises made on the campaign trail. As a candidate in 2024, Donald Trump propositioned oil company executives for $1 billion in campaign contributions. In return, he swore to roll out the red carpet for drilling on public lands, rolling back rules for power plant emissions and methane emissions from oil and gas fields. He promised to kill the electric car and renewable energy. All that and much more has already transpired on an administrative level throughout the federal government in under six months, and will now be codified and expanded upon if the budget bill ultimately passes. Incentives for home solar and heat pumps, tax credits for buying an electric vehicle—all these could be erased. With oil interests in mind, it’s no wonder that on Day One, President Trump abandoned the Paris Agreement and declared an energy emergency to expand fossil fuels and scale back wind and solar. 

Instead of fortifying the agencies that would help us better plan for disasters—and restricting the emissions that cause disasters in the first place—the Trump administration has gutted them in an effort to carve out tax breaks for the obscenely wealthy. Folks like Elon Musk and Citadel CEO Ken Griffin gave hundreds of millions of dollars in contributions to Trump campaign political action committees (PACs), while other rich people gave $1 million contributions to the inaugural fund, like Jeff Bezos and Sam Altman. These are people with enough cash for joyrides into space in their pockets, not the ‘we’re able to retire’ and robust 401k crowd. The upcoming budget bill will benefit those with the most at the expense of those with the least, those in the middle, and our environment. It’s a perfect illustration on the effects of campaign donor influence in setting and benefitting from policies. 

Trump’s goals align with the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025: dramatic cuts to environmental protections and regulations, kickbacks to the wealthy elite, a retreat from global climate commitments, and an expansion in fossil fuel extraction on public lands that will be underway for years to come. Climate and environmental consequences be damned. The administration would rather burn down the planet and sell off our national treasures just to give tax breaks to rich people. It’s more than a transfer of wealth; this agenda seeks to enshrine inequity and climate emergency for generations yet to be born.

In concert, these agendas will increase U.S. emissions, remove the United States as a leader in the energy transition, and impact global climate progress. The tenor of this present Trumpian moment has already shifted global climate ambitions, with global companies reneging from past climate and emissions cutting commitments, to policy shifts happening in the European Union that could rewind climate and sustainability targets. 

Far from the “America first” worldview that Trump and his allies boast about, this agenda puts America last. If enacted, it will prop up fossil fuel companies at the expense of our climate and environmental security, our neighborhoods, our homes, and our lives. And it doesn’t even make business sense. This is all happening at a time when the International Energy Agency projects a saturated global oil market, with supplies projected to outpace demand for the years ahead. That means lower prices for oil for the time being. Lower prices mean risky projects on remote public lands—which lack existing infrastructure and pipeline networks—will be more costly and less profitable. Research from the Boston Consulting Group makes a clear business case for confronting our climate challenge with solutions in mind. Continuing to emit as we are - a business as usual scenario—would create climate-fuelled economic losses from 11-27 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100, a 3 degrees Celsius world. Meanwhile, investing in the energy transition and increasing energy efficiency would cost us only 1-2 percent of global GDP by 2050, and secure for us a 2 degree Celsius world—to say nothing of avoiding economic losses and human suffering.

It’s possible we could see up to $1.2 quadrillion in global damages by 2100 if nations fail to reduce emissions and mitigate climate-causing activities, according to research from the World Meteorological Organization. The stakes are high. A net zero emissions economy would cost $9.2 trillion globally each year by 2050, but this would be a $3.5 trillion increase on current annual spending, all while avoiding these stark climate impacts. Renewable energy and green industries alone could add $10.3 trillion to the global economy by 2050 on a net zero path. Across the board, the International Monetary Fund estimates that a net zero economy could boost global GDP by roughly 8 percent. In the face of climate costs, the benefits of climate action, and the present Trump administration’s environmental and energy agenda, we have to ask ourselves: is it worthwhile to subsidise and reinforce the fossil fuel industries that have caused our climate crisis?

A charred Los Angeles is recovering from wildfires in January. Asheville residents are still coping with the aftermath of Biblical floods last year. These communities and hundreds of others all rely on FEMA to provide integral recovery resources and aid to families in need. Americans need an EPA that will monitor water pollution and ensure runoff from industrial activities, mining, wildfires, and floods does not cause irreversible environmental and health impacts to communities. All Americans rely on accurate forecasting from NOAA, and need clean air, water and soil that come from sound environmental regulations. We all need a habitable future that means keeping fossil fuels in the ground, protecting public lands, and investing in emissions-reducing efforts, like the inevitable energy transition towards renewables.

Policies cast long shadows, and the full impact of these rollbacks are no different. We won't know the full cost of these actions for some time, but it is immediately clear that the American people will pay the price. The great American environmental unraveling has begun. Every day we fail to address the fraying, we are likely to face starker environmental catastrophes of our own creation.

As Congress continues to tweak the budget bill, now is the time to call your federal representatives and senators and let your opinion be heard. Being civically engaged is a cornerstone of our social contract: check your voter registration, canvass on issues you care about, join a protest, find a local mutual aid community group. The ‘big beautiful’ budget bill will exacerbate the harm we’re already seeing on a federal departmental level, and that means your state and local government will become increasingly important. Calling your government should not stop at Washington, D.C., state legislatures, city boards, and governors will all have to rise to the occasion on: emergency preparedness, state and local conservation efforts, and environmental regulations. With the federal government on hiatus from environmental stewardship and disaster resilience, now is the time for communities to come together and organize mutual aid efforts that can help when the next disaster strikes.

Martha Molfetas is a Visiting Assistant Professor at Pratt Institute’s Graduate Center for Planning and the Environment, where she teaches Environmental Economics. Martha is a senior climate and energy policy consultant, writer, and strategist with over 15-years of experience helping NGOs, think tanks, and businesses unpack climate, environmental justice, resource conflict, sustainable development, and global policy issues – most recently as a Senior Fellow at New America.

Her work has been published in The World Politics Review, The Global Policy Journal, Policy Mic, Common Dreams, and others.